Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.789685 2.375818 3.174961 4.374062 6.182040e+00 8.901143e+00 1.349684e+01
2024-12-29 1.256828 1.908066 2.967392 4.928361 8.754793e+00 1.663134e+01 3.662735e+01
2025-01-05 0.923082 1.562101 2.767526 5.464472 1.224910e+01 3.199520e+01 1.171432e+02
2025-01-12 0.648727 1.190811 2.337392 5.334988 1.479458e+01 5.377855e+01 3.769337e+02
2025-01-19 0.459885 0.899561 1.918917 4.958106 1.674127e+01 8.605949e+01 1.450106e+03
2025-01-26 0.359261 0.749770 1.746165 5.177030 2.214590e+01 1.842467e+02 1.915068e+04
2025-02-02 0.301582 0.673122 1.722825 5.971316 3.432332e+01 5.955542e+02 2.829028e+09
2025-02-09 0.261651 0.623470 1.755442 7.193547 5.893117e+01 3.337625e+03 NaN
2025-02-16 0.219273 0.549111 1.666316 7.845967 8.935874e+01 2.618575e+04 NaN
2025-02-23 0.178263 0.461927 1.477700 7.705950 1.145944e+02 3.066780e+05 NaN
2025-03-02 0.144346 0.383583 1.276638 7.205350 1.339454e+02 1.692022e+07 NaN
2025-03-09 0.126211 0.348382 1.232247 7.888097 2.166802e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.109496 0.313600 1.178309 8.594914 3.739592e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.096864 0.288062 1.152821 9.698619 7.573103e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.085757 0.263710 1.117637 10.770078 1.632744e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.072956 0.228232 0.996621 10.333738 2.373279e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061585 0.194648 0.865440 9.387199 2.854731e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054712 0.176735 0.816769 9.779663 5.991589e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050599 0.168600 0.824054 11.451456 2.775378e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047604 0.164091 0.853726 14.130652 4.749375e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043547 0.153454 0.832137 15.550110 2.731620e+07 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038801 0.138157 0.764091 15.151809 9.790844e+09 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034281 0.122644 0.684468 13.953655 NaN NaN NaN